“I think that, overall, the situation has improved.” Precision counts “The impact probability went up just a little bit but it’s not a significant change, the impact probability is pretty much the same,” lead author Davide Farnocchia, who works at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies in California, said during a news conference held Wednesday (Aug. And besides, the lessons the research offers for asteroid trajectory calculation could reduce concerns about potential impacts by other asteroids more than enough to compensate. Technically, that’s a small increase in risk, but the scientists behind the new research say they aren’t worried about a potential impact. While a slightly higher risk than past estimates, it represents a minuscule change in an already minuscule risk, NASA said. Estimates produced before OSIRIS-REx arrived at the space rock tallied the cumulative probability of a Bennu impact between the years 21 at 1 in 2,700, according to NASA. And with that incredibly detailed view of the asteroid, experts studying potential space rock impacts with Earth have been able to fine-tune their existing models of Bennu’s future.Īs a result, scientists behind new research now say they’re confident that the asteroid’s total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750. The agency’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft spent more than two years closely orbiting the space rock. If the possibility of an asteroid called Bennu slamming into Earth a lifetime from now was keeping you up at night, NASA scientists think you can rest a little easier.
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